Modern Russian Medals - Over-productions or fakes?

[Sgt Stavka]

I read here that many modern Russian decorations are fake, then I also read that many are over-production pieces from contractors. I am sure that both are true, but which are most likely fakes and which are over-productions?

I recently bought the Russian Jubilee's (1995-2015) from a popular auction site (we all know which one), that I believe to be ok - too cheap to be worth counterfeiting. I also read here that the 'Retrieving Crimea' are likely over-productions by the contractor. So it should be ok.

So how to tell which ones are likely to be fake and which are contract over-productions?