Prices/Value Discussion. - Page 46

Sergei · 10-01-2006, 01:29 PM

Marc, I can see your point but if a new collector is in the league even to contemplate a T2 Lenin, why not go straight for a Picasso?

Meantime, the raise in prices across the rarity scale (and, as William noted, in fact across the entire field) is hurting the beginners who often operate in the middle or even at the bottom of the rarity tables. Indeed, who said that showing off a Suvorov when you are old and rich (and you've just had your after-dinner brandy and a cigar, and now your liver is bothering you a little..) is more satisfying than demonstrating variations of the Stalingrad Defence medal in a student bar when you are young and poor (and are trying to impress that girl with something Slavic in her face...)? But if (a big if) there is a serious element of artificial inflation in pricing then it is the present-day beginners who will be hurt the most when interest in this area fades (and the girl from the bar became your wife and is now nagging you for the money wasted on the useless jewellery). I fear there may be a strong correlation between money flows (fashion) and people's interest in collecting. Sergei.

Lapa · 10-01-2006, 02:26 PM

Sergei,

I understand your position.
I believe that collecting is a long-term endeavor, and as such, is very little impacted by fashion - or other - cycles, same as for real-estate, stocks and the like.
Now, if you take a short-term view of the problem, then you expose yourself to marked up and down swings. Once again, it is similar to any other type of commodity.
On a long-term frame, prices do increase with time; this is the general trend, which does not preclude strong upwards and sharp downward movements on the way.
One thing to remember about prices is that even if they go down, you do not have a loss unless you actually sell the item; you only have a potential loss of value, which will materialize only if you do sell the item at this time, nothing else.

Marc

Sergei · 10-01-2006, 03:24 PM

Marc, well said

I definitely support the view that, no matter where you start, patience and dedication is the key to success - but then it is always like that, isn't it? Sergei.

sovvisor · 10-01-2006, 03:30 PM

I follow the discussion with much pleasure.
I agree that goldprice etc does not have much to do with it anymore. if 100 newskis will be available at the same time i don´t think will get great impact. the demand is high and i think more people in russia will see this as an good investment in their own history.

plmurphy · 10-01-2006, 03:57 PM

I believe the recent jump in prices of Russian items is not only due to fashion. It is due to the fact that there are now enough Russians with sufficient disposable income and interest in their own past to create a vibrant domestic collectors market. The same thing is happening to Russian coins and has happened to other areas of medal collecting in the past.

Mongolian medal prices are more likely to stagnate since a lot of that demand is from type collectors overseas and there is little active research. I believe the next country that will see sudden increases will be Turkey, their items have started to climb and there is a lot of domestic demand for the early orders.

For the serious collector a stagnant or falling market presents an opportunity to increase the size of your collection. I have been collecting Japanese items for the past 17 years and prices have been flat for most of that time. Has that slowed me down, no way !

If Soviet prices start to fall I reckon there are plenty of collectors waiting in the wings who will snap up items once they become affordable so this will create a natural floor for the price. I would not hold my breath waiting for a market slump, I think it is more likely that good material will continue to get more difficult and more expensive to find.

Regards,

Paul

Sergei · 10-06-2006, 07:16 PM

OK, my comments have been somewhat provocative and perhaps not exactly honest - I am buying Russian medals now - for very personal reasons, not as an investment (as an investment I prefer to do other things

. I have two concerns sor far: a 'blind belief' from the new collectors that Russian medals represent a fantastic ivalue - but smart guys in London have already SOLD their Russian collections (and their Nazi stuff too). The second concern, I would like to hear what professional traders think - there are a few of them on this forum, but they are keeping very quiet. I wonder why... Sergei

Nack · 10-06-2006, 09:41 PM

Sorry, what was your second concern?

Sergei · 10-07-2006, 06:05 AM

Sorry. Meant to say - professional trades are not participating in this discussion, and that's my second concern. I reckon they are best positioned to judge the supply/demand side of things, they can also recognize an overheated market. Sergei.

***Art*** · 10-07-2006, 10:47 AM

You might want to search the "General Talk" forum for the word "prices". This topic pops up every year or so and we've all chimed in at one time or another. Here is a very popular version which dates back to 2002!

http://www.soviet-awards.com/forum/s...ghlight=prices

Lapa · 10-07-2006, 11:52 AM

Art,

You could append this thread to the old one, it is definitely beating the same cow (not sure if it is completely dead, though

).

Marc

10-01-2006, 02:26 PM	#452
Lapa Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: St Petersburg, Russia Age: 63 Posts: 2,397	Sergei, I understand your position. I believe that collecting is a long-term endeavor, and as such, is very little impacted by fashion - or other - cycles, same as for real-estate, stocks and the like. Now, if you take a short-term view of the problem, then you expose yourself to marked up and down swings. Once again, it is similar to any other type of commodity. On a long-term frame, prices do increase with time; this is the general trend, which does not preclude strong upwards and sharp downward movements on the way. One thing to remember about prices is that even if they go down, you do not have a loss unless you actually sell the item; you only have a *potential* loss of value, which will materialize only if you do sell the item at this time, nothing else. Marc Last edited by Lapa; 10-01-2006 at 02:28 PM.

10-01-2006, 03:30 PM	#454
sovvisor Bearer of the Red Star Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Uppsala Swden Age: 49 Posts: 229	well said I follow the discussion with much pleasure. I agree that goldprice etc does not have much to do with it anymore. if 100 newskis will be available at the same time i don´t think will get great impact. the demand is high and i think more people in russia will see this as an good investment in their own history. __________________ sovvisor

10-07-2006, 10:47 AM	#459
*Art* Forum Founder Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Buffalo NY Age: 58 Posts: 1,646	You might want to search the "General Talk" forum for the word "prices". This topic pops up every year or so and we've all chimed in at one time or another. Here is a very popular version which dates back to 2002! http://www.soviet-awards.com/forum/s...ghlight=prices __________________ Visit the main site to the forum: The Soviet Military Awards Page Want to sell awards on the forum? Please read the FAQ Important Links: Forum announcements and rules \| Image posting FAQ

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Papaha prices?	Commissar	Soviet Uniforms, Hats And Insignia	7	07-10-2009 09:53 PM
Low prices for RF medals	Laurent	Soviet Militaria For Sale Archive	0	06-23-2007 11:27 AM
Lowest prices for WW2 / post-WW2 ODMs on the market!	Laurent	Sold Soviet Awards Archive	0	06-23-2007 11:16 AM

10-01-2006, 01:29 PM	#451
Sergei Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: London, UK Posts: 199	Marc, I can see your point but if a new collector is in the league even to contemplate a T2 Lenin, why not go straight for a Picasso? Meantime, the raise in prices across the rarity scale (and, as William noted, in fact across the entire field) is hurting the beginners who often operate in the middle or even at the bottom of the rarity tables. Indeed, who said that showing off a Suvorov when you are old and rich (and you've just had your after-dinner brandy and a cigar, and now your liver is bothering you a little..) is more satisfying than demonstrating variations of the Stalingrad Defence medal in a student bar when you are young and poor (and are trying to impress that girl with something Slavic in her face...)? But if (a big if) there is a serious element of artificial inflation in pricing then it is the present-day beginners who will be hurt the most when interest in this area fades (and the girl from the bar became your wife and is now nagging you for the money wasted on the useless jewellery). I fear there may be a strong correlation between money flows (fashion) and people's interest in collecting. Sergei.

10-01-2006, 03:24 PM	#453
Sergei Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: London, UK Posts: 199	Marc, well said I definitely support the view that, no matter where you start, patience and dedication is the key to success - but then it is always like that, isn't it? Sergei.

10-01-2006, 03:57 PM	#455
plmurphy Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: London Age: 55 Posts: 49	I believe the recent jump in prices of Russian items is not only due to fashion. It is due to the fact that there are now enough Russians with sufficient disposable income and interest in their own past to create a vibrant domestic collectors market. The same thing is happening to Russian coins and has happened to other areas of medal collecting in the past. Mongolian medal prices are more likely to stagnate since a lot of that demand is from type collectors overseas and there is little active research. I believe the next country that will see sudden increases will be Turkey, their items have started to climb and there is a lot of domestic demand for the early orders. For the serious collector a stagnant or falling market presents an opportunity to increase the size of your collection. I have been collecting Japanese items for the past 17 years and prices have been flat for most of that time. Has that slowed me down, no way ! If Soviet prices start to fall I reckon there are plenty of collectors waiting in the wings who will snap up items once they become affordable so this will create a natural floor for the price. I would not hold my breath waiting for a market slump, I think it is more likely that good material will continue to get more difficult and more expensive to find. Regards, Paul

10-06-2006, 07:16 PM	#456
Sergei Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: London, UK Posts: 199	OK, my comments have been somewhat provocative and perhaps not exactly honest - I am buying Russian medals now - for very personal reasons, not as an investment (as an investment I prefer to do other things . I have two concerns sor far: a 'blind belief' from the new collectors that Russian medals represent a fantastic ivalue - but smart guys in London have already SOLD their Russian collections (and their Nazi stuff too). The second concern, I would like to hear what professional traders think - there are a few of them on this forum, but they are keeping very quiet. I wonder why... Sergei

10-06-2006, 09:41 PM	#457
Nack Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: The Buckeye State Age: 46 Posts: 513	Sorry, what was your second concern?

10-07-2006, 06:05 AM	#458
Sergei Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: London, UK Posts: 199	Sorry. Meant to say - professional trades are not participating in this discussion, and that's my second concern. I reckon they are best positioned to judge the supply/demand side of things, they can also recognize an overheated market. Sergei.

10-07-2006, 11:52 AM	#460
Lapa Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: St Petersburg, Russia Age: 63 Posts: 2,397	Art, You could append this thread to the old one, it is definitely beating the same cow (not sure if it is completely dead, though ). Marc

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)