Prices/Value Discussion.

[matteti]

Interesting analysis, but in my mind, we cannot take the ratios between the prices of diffrerent variations / types as constant. I believe that the rarer and expensive items will always increase faster in price (even in %) than the more common items. We have observed that in the last 5-8 years. The very common items are still at the same price and still very commonly available. The less common items rose in price, but nothing in term of % when compares with very rare items.

[medals73]

A very good and wise analysis, Aharim. Nevertheless, I am (like others?) now pretty much priced out of the market.

I think of that documented researched tractor Lenin I could have had for $30K and weep. Really I do.

All the "disposable" money now goes to research on what I have, should I live long enough to get the results . . . and ever find a reliable source for the translations . . . !!

[Aharim]

Just like I remember the $12k Tractor without document that I held in my hand, and the next guy bought it without my having time to call my bank to clear a check. Those were the days.

I too am largely out of procurement now.

[latinmajorac]

Aharim


one would almost make you out to be an economist with an analysis like that

interesting analysis, but i am not sure the prices of gold and oil aren' just coincidently moving at the same time, i am not so sure they are linked.

[Aharim]

Let's just say if you took money out of the stock market in the 1990's and put it in the Silver and Gold collectibles market, as it were, buying high end stuff that you could afford with loans if necessary, what would you see today:

I remember $350 and $375 for Screwback Red Banner "2". Wide availability at those prices. If you were there then, you should not believe todays price of $24,000 which is 64x that old price. What annual percentage would that be, even from 1993? It works out to about 33 percent return per year! I can think of no individual stock that would match that rate of return over time.

What I failed to go into in detail on that long analysis are such factors as:

Research to a particular award
Desirability of certain items over others of equal or higher rarety.

So, Red Banner Screwback "2" - there are several thousand of those. Winning bid = $24,000

Deputy badge for KFSSR in Red (one congress - 120 members) goes at $2000.

Because who likes politics particularly of a losing political system. So, I used to have free reign in that Deputy Badge market, until a recent book makes others bid up really rare items.

On the other hand and in addition, for that particular red banner, if you knew the recipient or if two guys knew, astronomical things happen.

For example, Suvorov goes for $20k - $25k today (based on $30k with documentation from the subject auction). But, what if the recipient was Commander of a unit in Riga in June 1941, which is shown as liquidated (by the enemy in August of that year) and he is shown as (Under Arrest in August). As in Meretskov and others, he rehabilitates himself and is a commander in the conquest of Koenigsgrad. The research shows he receives a Suvorov in lieu of those mere HSU referred to previously, because Malinowsky says "no give him Suvorov II" (Direct quote based on hand written notes on the page.) Both medals contain the same content gold, but HSU = 11,000 folks Suvorov II = 2000 awards, less about 500 unit awards, and his award is $20k versus $8k or so. But with a good story like the above, magic happens, and I would expect to see a premium for such award, particularly if announced.

But sometimes, like here and RB "2" screwback, the story is not told, until after the fact, and we need to wait and find out why.

I would like to know the magic related to that Red Banner "2" Screwback because those guys, in general, did miraculous things.

And I think a certain Suvarov recipient would "beat the norm" were his award to come up, oh maybe next year or in New Jersey. Let me just say, this is not me, I have this friend . . . . I merely do the reseach for him.

[new world]

Good analysis, but please don't forget that these prices were driven up by 2-3 bidders. To me this is not a representation of the market.

The main question is how sustainable are these prices. At the moment it's fashionable to collect Soviet awards, it's new fad among Russia's new riches. The interest in award only started to pick up about 4-5 yrs ago.

One think you have to remember - the market is quite outside Russia. In Russia it is pumped up by booming oil prices. What will happen if oil revenues go down?

William

[tashkentski]

For those interested prices realised can be seen at Sixbid: New York Sale The New York Sale XIX

(with photos)

As for me, I dont know whether to laugh or cry. I have all the republican orders from the caucasus (armenia, azerbaijan, georgia and Trans caucasian). My total outlay on them in 1975 was about ten thousand. If the auction results are to be believed, my collection is worth almost a quarter of a million. Maybe i should stop working and travel the republics ferreting out soviet orders. If nothing would atleast be a fun way to earn a living!!!

[ekclete]

At these prices I just sold my collection way to soon!!! That Cavalier of the Order of Glory would be nice to be selling now! Thanks CLete

[jefflgarrison]

Well it looks like a couple of wackos went at it on eB?y and created a new price barrier for the Israeli dealers.

$282.66 for a ORB #382,581 (most likely a long service award for that number range).

Granted, it looks fresh from the mint but still, DANG!

[Lapa]

Jeff,

That same RB was for sale a few months ago by "a major NY dealer" (M****v) for $190.

Marc