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General And Slightly Off Topic Talk Forum for exchanging ideas and talking about general issues without straying too far off topic.

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Old 11-30-2005, 12:46 AM   #421
yolkin
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Here is a funny one... on 5/17/2004 I was offered a Kutuzov 3 for 2000-2300...

Should have taken and ran... Oh well
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Old 02-15-2006, 05:09 PM   #422
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Is it possible ...

Is it possible that the prices of our collection could crash one day like it could happen in real estate?

My partial answer would be no, because we are not making any more of these medals and orders (except for the fakes). So supply shall not be higher than the demand for this kind of things.

What are your thoughts?
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Old 02-15-2006, 07:05 PM   #423
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No I dont think so, but the number of fakes available increase all the time and get better and better. I think that certificates of autheniticity will become more and more important, at some stage it might be virtually impossible to sell an award without a such certificate.
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Old 02-15-2006, 07:11 PM   #424
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Prices of our collections

Unfortunately I have different opinion.
I agree that the supply of the Soviet medals and orders is not getting bigger (yes, USSR does not exist anymore and does not produce new awards).
My concern is that in several years (maybe 10 - maybe 20) the demand of the Soviet awards would be much lower. Less people would remember and know former Soviet Union. I would say less people would care about many-many years ago history. Soviet awards would be the same as awards of other countries. I am not trying to say that nobody would collect Soviet awards. My guess – just less people.
Even I have this terrible for us collectors opinion , I am continuing and will continue my collection of Soviet and other awards . Collecting for me is not investment, however I would feel bad if the demand and prices would drop down.
I also think that economy is a big factor for Real-estate and collecting. If people have money, they buy staff. If people don't have money, they sell staff. If they sell staff, the supply is bigger, the demand is less, and prices are ....
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Old 02-15-2006, 07:14 PM   #425
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COAs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tretov
No I dont think so, but the number of fakes available increase all the time and get better and better. I think that certificates of autheniticity will become more and more important, at some stage it might be virtually impossible to sell an award without a such certificate.
COAs completed by whom? Many other countries (Russia) don't even look at PMD COAs. With quality of current and future (I am even scared to think about future) fakes, it might be impossible to do the certification.
It's bad!!!
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Old 02-16-2006, 09:33 AM   #426
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I don't think the prices will ever fall to the bottom of the price dip that we saw about 4-5 years ago, but I think there is potential for the prices to dip. People's investment in collectibles comes in cycles. When things are stable, they tend to spend money elsewhere, but when financial situations are slightly unstable (like the value of the dollar dropping, September 11th, etc.) they invest in "things". At some point those "things" get sold off and the market dips back down.

My dad is a model train collector and has been collecting them for over 50 years now. Granted, model trains are different than international military awards, but they are similar in that there is a finite amount of them produced. Talking to him, he's seen the market go all over the place over the years, normally in response to overall global financial trends. People like to put their money into things that they can see and feel, rather than investing them in a questionable market, and thus they collect. After a while though, things right themselves and people sell off what they collected, causing a dip in the market.

So, will the prices dip again? I think they will. It might not be next year, or even the year after... It might be ten or even fifteen years from now. Could be that the prices won't dip, but perhaps stabilize and not increse with inflation, thus making things a better deal down the road... we just never know. Also consider too that the "face" of the collecting community tends to change each decade as well. People find other hobbies, die off, have other priorites, etc., and then other collectors take their places. There are very very few "life long" collectors out there, and that too causes fuctuations in the market as well.

Just my three cents!

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Old 02-16-2006, 09:44 AM   #427
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One other thing...

I think there's also a lot of artificial price inflation in the market as it stands now. For example, one NY dealer is offering a Suvorov 2nd for $14.8K. Rusty was offering his for $12K. Granted, Rusty's sold, but I think it was a nicer award condition wise but it was nearly $3000 different in price! Call me crazy, but I don't have $2800 just to throw around and when you see that much of a difference in price, you've just got to wonder to yourself... that's a pretty big difference!

In the same way, can you explain why some Kutuzov 3rds have sold for more than a Kutuzov 2nd? I don't get that one either. SOMEWHERE there's an artificial price inflation where a less rare award sells for more than a more rare award. Something just ain't right with that picture...

Since there's no set price for these awards, I think a lot of people just randomly select prices to sell for. A Kutuzov 1st for $38K??? Why not $42K or maybe $32K? That's a $10K difference in price, and in all reality, not many people would notice or even bat an eye if that same dealer listed the same award for even $50K... There's a certain randomness in a lot of Soviet award pricing these days that is just asking to be popped like a balloon. For the guy that buys that Kutuzov 1st for $38K, will he ever be able to resell it for that? Or will he make money? No one possibily knows...

This makes four cents from me...

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Old 02-16-2006, 09:51 AM   #428
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Here's my 2 kopeks on the subject:

The current prices are pretty much at their highest the market can bare.
Yes, certain things will still increase in price. I see those things being items that are still affordable to the common collector. I can see a Red Banner going for $200

The high-end stuff is already at the point where many just say “I don’t need it”
When the prices used to be affordable, you would see a dealer place an Order on his site and it would be sold in a matter of weeks or months depending on the price tag. Now it’s the same things sitting on the sites and not really moving. That tells me that the asking prices are too high. The old supply/demand model at work!

Things still sell, don’t get me wrong! It’s a matter of the price asked!
As an example; My Suvorov 2 sold but lower than what I wanted but way higher than what I paid for it!

Although I didn’t sell b/c I see the market at its peak. I simply need to put 30% down-payment for a house. Like Dave said, priorities change. I’m still keeping a huge chunk of my collection! Just trimming the sides…

Rusty.
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Old 02-16-2006, 09:55 AM   #429
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I agree with Rusty... I can also see some awards still moving up in price (like the Red Banners) but I think a lot of the higher end ones are topping out. I think some of the rare variations of the more desireable awards may go up a little where they can still be afforded by mere mortals (like Type 1 Nevsky, for example) but others will stay out of reach by us folks.

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Old 02-16-2006, 10:17 AM   #430
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I see the same trend with my other hobby, Civil War uniform button collecting. A Georgia state seal Militia button that I've paid $125.00 seven years ago is now going for $250.00 on a CW dealer's website. Another GA button that I have in my collection that was made by another maker and purchased about the same time frame was sold for $75.00, and now the same this is selling for $125.00.

Union Army coat buttons when compared to Confederate buttons are much, much cheaper for the most part, but now with Confederate buttons at such a high price range, collectors are now picking up Union Army, Navy, State Militia buttons, causing an increase in the price of these as well.

I really enjoy my Soviet/East Bloc collection as well as my US Civil War artifact collection, and by going by the current trend in the price increase, I'm reluctant to part with anything, other than to sell a duplicate.
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