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General And Slightly Off Topic Talk Forum for exchanging ideas and talking about general issues without straying too far off topic.

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Old 04-25-2004, 03:42 PM   #251
HuliganRS
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Alexei,

As a dealer, I believe you can provide a deeper insight into this...

Where do you see the prices in 6 months and a year?
Is there a specific segment where the prices are more likely to rise or stay?

I know this is hard to judge but you've been in this business for years and your insight is invaluable...

Thanks,

Rusty.
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Old 04-25-2004, 04:31 PM   #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ericlida
Rusty,

I would like this hobby to exist forever. I would like my grand son to continue it and not to sell my collection 10 cents a piece on a garage sale.

I would like more and more people to be interested in the history of USSR and collect orders and medals. I think our hobby will be much more interesting. We will find "our" Orders and Medals for our collections.

My opinion based only on my observations on another people's attitude (young children) toward Former USSR and collecting its awards.

Eric.
Eric,

I agree with Rusty.
It seems obvious that the number of Soviet Awards available in the market is decreasing, so if more collectors are interested in this hobby that will only make the prices increasing even more, I guess!
Just mho...

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Old 04-25-2004, 07:55 PM   #253
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Price increases

I agree with Eric I hope to pass on my collection to my son as he has a great
interest in medals. He gets out the magnifing glass every time a new medal arrives in the mail, and checks it out. He always notices if it has an issue number or not. And he is only 4, surfs ebay looking at medals and goes through pauls McDaniel book, looking to see what medals we have and what I don't have.

As for the price increases, if they keep going up, it will soon price me out of the collecting of Soviet medals. Most orders I can no longer afford or justify spending that kind of money. There is 6 more medals on my want list that I can still afford, so I guess I better get them soon.
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Old 04-25-2004, 10:51 PM   #254
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Ron,

I understand your concern. Unfortunately this hobby (Russian awards) is no longer a hobby for "poor" people. I don't mean to say that you are poor but that it's an expensive hobby and the prices now reflect the rarity of these awards.

There are still deals out there... I believe that even your average Order of Red Star & Order of Great Patriotic War 2nd class will rise. Right now the prices on some awards are still within reason but with time they will also rise...

Rusty.
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Old 04-26-2004, 11:53 PM   #255
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High prices

Hello Rusty

I agree it is not for poor people and I m not poor but I am not rich either :-(
Married with children you know. And my wife is very supportive in my collecting as she is Russian anyways so she likes my collections, but there is a limit.

The orders I could afford last year well under $1000 are now well over that.

I agree with you I can just get different variations, and I have been, my collection is over 100 medals now.

But I think if prices continue to climb too far they will crash as there will be no buyers. Also with the all the fakes being made that will have an impact on our hobby as well, it will hurt our collections or force us to spend lots of money to authenticate or collections.





Quote:
Originally Posted by HuliganRS
Ron,

I understand your concern. Unfortunately this hobby (Russian awards) is no longer a hobby for "poor" people. I don't mean to say that you are poor but that it's an expensive hobby and the prices now reflect the rarity of these awards.

There are still deals out there... I believe that even your average Order of Red Star & Order of Great Patriotic War 2nd class will rise. Right now the prices on some awards are still within reason but with time they will also rise...

Rusty.
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Old 04-27-2004, 10:52 AM   #256
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Ron,

I think you are RICH. Having a suportive wife in our hobby is being very rich. Three months ago my wife bought for me Khmelnitsky III. Now, I have to buy so much flowers and other "staff" for her, I would be able to by Khmelnitsky II.

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Old 04-27-2004, 11:42 AM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rboomsma
...

But I think if prices continue to climb too far they will crash as there will be no buyers. Also with the all the fakes being made that will have an impact on our hobby as well, it will hurt our collections or force us to spend lots of money to authenticate or collections.
Gentelemen,

Aren't we a bit naive in waiting for the crash of prices for Soviet awards?

There was similar situation with German stuff - little or no interest in WWII German items, people been throwing away items that Vets brought back and all of the sudden prices went through the roof in the 1980-1990's.

We all know how much German Zink is worth today.


In addidion, keep in mind general global price trends. Really, name me goods/items on which prices dropped in the last decade. Anything you look at went up drastically over the last decade: real estate - in the US, in Russia and in Europe - , gasoline, art, services, etc.

Lastly, don't forget that core collectors aren't poor people. Once we buy something - what's the likelyhood of us selling our treasures? Therefore, many items will be stored in the collection for next 10-20 yrs and will not be seen on the market any time soon.

Another recent source of supply - veterans, their families and museums - is virtually dried up.

All said, I don't see substantial inflow of awards to the market.

If anyone thinks prices will crash - let me know, I'll be happy to buy your collection.

Best regards,
William
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Old 04-28-2004, 10:35 PM   #258
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Rusty told me that he had been causing a ruckus on the thread, so I figured I'd burn some of my evening attempting to read it. (I got stuck with a very slow connection to the internet when I moved, but that should be fixed in the next week or so! So they say...)

Here are my thoughts:

Prices are going up on a lot of stuff. Look around... Prices are going up on gas, property, etc... Take, for instance (since we just bought a new house) the prices of houses in the area I live in - they have literally doubled in two years! (Average price of $300K to now an average of $600K!) Now that you've looked around, look at your paycheck. If it's doubled in the last two years, congratulations! For me, it's gone up a whopping 5% (roughly). Last time I figured it out, doubling was 200%, and considering my pay raise at 5%... Something isn't adding up here!

So I've got my 5% raise paycheck and I collect Soviet awards... Last year, I sold a beautiful, complete, researched group that had a Kutuzov 3rd for $1200. I advertized it for several months before I got a buyer. Now, I could have parted out the Kutuzov alone to Rusty and walked away with $800 more!

The question is: What is the reason for this? Certainly it's not that I'm making more money (Rusty probably is so he can lay out the dough on the Kutuzov 3rds) Seriously, I think there are several reasons, which also contribute to the price of houses in my area going up too:

1 - The interest rates are low. What's that mean? That means that a lot more people can take loans for a lot more money than they could before. That's the way folks are able to afford paying $600K for one of these houses, when two years ago, they were probably maxed out at paying $300K.

2 - There's significant uncertainty in the global climate. Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq, and terrorism in assorted climes and places... When people have a situation like that, they tend to like stability. Stability = not selling stuff. Not selling stuff = lessing the available stock, which leads to raising prices on the stock that is available.

3 - A lot more awards are staying in Russia. While that's a bad thing for me as a collector here, that's honestly a great thing (if the awards are respected). Heck, I wouldn't want to see my country's awards being bought up by the Russians in mass quantities! What that also means is that there's less available stuff over here, and thus, raises prices.

4 - Another reason for # 3 is that in some areas of the FSU, the border guards are really cracking down on awards leaving the country. Some of my best contacts that I've been dealing with for years are reporting to me that they can't get groups out of their respective countries, even by the "normal" routes (and no, I don't know what they are).

5 - There is also artificial inflation of the market. If [name deleted], a major dealer, asks $700 for a Type 6 Lenin, all of a sudden to those collectors not savvy in the market, it's worth $700. And wouldn't you know it, sooner or later, there's an idiot out there who will buy it. At the same time, I bought a complete WW2 Lenin group with multiple other orders, medals and documents last month for $800. Strange how that works.

On the same price inflation theme, I recently got a list from a major dealer who has a group with a wartime Red Star and a PW2nd with documents and jubilee medals for $1000. Artificial inflation? Actual value? You tell me!

Also, Alexei is exactly right when he says that some dealers would rather sit on their stock forever than lose a buck or two. The Kutuzov group I mentioned above I paid $1500 for. I couldn't sell it for the life of me at that price, so I finally settled at $1200. I needed the dough, and was willing to take a loss on the group. Such is the life of collecting this stuff... I know some dealers who have had groups for sale on their websites for three and four years now. They keep raising the price of the groups, but the groups still don't sell. (Something else I find strange... Why would you raise the price of a group that isn't selling? Doesn't that fact alone mean that it's already overpriced????)

My last comment about price inflation is that I think some of the overseas sellers do it on purpose. The awards don't sell, but it makes for a good "fish story". How 'bout the story last year about the Ushakov medal that "sold" for $600 in Kiev? That's the story that got distributed, but that was entirely untrue. I can stick a common Type 4 Red Banner on my website for $200, and then (watch out!) mark it "sold". It obviously didn't sell, but it would be interesting to see how fast the rumor spreads! "Dave just sold a Type 4 Red Banner for $200!!!" Before long, the story would be: "Type 4 Red Banners are selling for $200 everywhere!" Trust me, that WOULD happen, too. Thus the reason I'm suspicious when I see a seller list an award on their website for an insane price, and then remove it shortly thereafter. Hmmm... Did it sell? Or did the consigner just want it back??? (Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but many "major" dealers simply have stock on consignment, which sometimes has to be returned to the actual owner, but gives the impression to all that it sold...)

6 - With regard to "big money" buyers, they've actually been around for a while, but normally stay "under the table". I know of a guy who has a policy of buying groups priced at no less than $5000. He'll drop $100K on a group, no problem. And, he's been doing this since the early 90's. Nice collection? You bet!

There are, however, more people now particularly in the FSU, with money to spend. Even when I was living in Moscow in 1996, they went over 1000 people that were true no-joke "cash-in-the-bank" millionaires. That was nearly 10 years ago; I'm certain the 1000 number has increased exponentially since '96.

7 - People in Russia with money ties several of the other themes together. First, there are quite a few willing to lay out dough for awards, thus raising the price which awards will sell at. That, in turn, increases the price that US dealers have to buy at, which then drives up their prices, which they, in turn, inflate. It's a vicious cycle.

8 - I agree with Alexei that there are also people (see # 2) that are hoarding awards as a way of keeping money tied up in something. Currencies are too wishy-washy at the moment to really get a good feeling for who's going up, and which one's going down. The Euro's up today, but next week... Who knows? If you had to put your money into something 1) that involves precious metals (always a good investment) and 2) is interesting... What would you choose?

9 - Will the prices stay up forever? I have to respectfully disagree that Soviet awards will EVER reach the same status or trading volume as TR awards. Sorry, that's just not going to happen, at least in our lifetimes. There are 100 TR collectors (maybe more) to every 1 Soviet collector. The laws of physics, nature, and common sense all dictate that an equal trade in Soviet awards just ain't gonna happen.

So the question is: Will the prices remain high? Or will they top out? Or will they decrease? Honestly, I'm not sure. I can't imagine them going up too much higher. Just like houses here, they are WAY overpriced at $600K. Will they sell for $800K or even $1M in two years? Heck no! That's just not going to happen, and I'll bet good money on that.

Does it look likely that next year that the "market price" on a Kutuzov 3rd is $3000? Highly doubtful. Look at the prices on HSU groups right now... You can't touch them for less than $5000/$6000 for a complete one. At some point, they will be out-of-touch for 99% of collectors out there, who simply can't peel away $6K out of the family budget to pay for some small bits of precious metal and paper. Yes, I can envision people paying $85 for a PW2nd from WW2. Scary, but I can see people doing it, because that's still "reasonable" to a lot of collectors. You can still get a LOT of $85 PW2's for the same money you'd be putting out on a $6K Hero group.

My prediction is that, at some point, the prices will top out. The number of guys that can afford to pay out over $5000 on an award is VERY finite, and gets much smaller the faster you go up the price levels, so I'm guessing that a lot of the stock for sale at the greatly inflated prices will simply sit at those prices, though may very well "travel" extensively, providing the illusion that they are actually selling, when in reality, they're not.

Just my two cent's worth...

--Dave
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Old 04-30-2004, 03:16 PM   #259
HuliganRS
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Dave,

TR stuff does have more collectors but some Soviet stuff is already priced more that any comparable TR junk. I see more and more TR people get into the Eastern Block militaria, be it DDR stuff but as far as I see it, eventually they find their way to the Soviet stuff.


Rusty.
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Old 04-30-2004, 03:44 PM   #260
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Guys,

In the summer of 2001, the dollar bought 1.26 euros. In January the dollar bought bought 78 Euro cents. Therefore, something that you would have paid $100 for in summer of 2001 in Europe cost 128 Euros. Those 128 Euros in January 2004 cost $165, representing an effective 65 percent price increase. The Russian ruble during the same time period increased about 30 percent against the dollar. Our friends that are earning and spending Euros have certainly seen a price decrease during this period. How much of this price increase is due to the collapse of the dollar? And how much of an increase, if at all, is related to a fundamental shift in the supply/demand equation.

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