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+--- Thread: Prices/Value Discussion. (/Thread-Prices-Value-Discussion)
Prices/Value Discussion. - Sergei - 10-01-2006
Marc, I can see your point but if a new collector is in the league even to contemplate a T2 Lenin, why not go straight for a Picasso?
Meantime, the raise in prices across the rarity scale (and, as William noted, in fact across the entire field) is hurting the beginners who often operate in the middle or even at the bottom of the rarity tables. Indeed, who said that showing off a Suvorov when you are old and rich (and you've just had your after-dinner brandy and a cigar, and now your liver is bothering you a little..) is more satisfying than demonstrating variations of the Stalingrad Defence medal in a student bar when you are young and poor (and are trying to impress that girl with something Slavic in her face...)? But if (a big if) there is a serious element of artificial inflation in pricing then it is the present-day beginners who will be hurt the most when interest in this area fades (and the girl from the bar became your wife and is now nagging you for the money wasted on the useless jewellery). I fear there may be a strong correlation between money flows (fashion) and people's interest in collecting. Sergei.
Prices/Value Discussion. - Lapa - 10-01-2006
Sergei,
I understand your position.
I believe that collecting is a long-term endeavor, and as such, is very little impacted by fashion - or other - cycles, same as for real-estate, stocks and the like.
Now, if you take a short-term view of the problem, then you expose yourself to marked up and down swings. Once again, it is similar to any other type of commodity.
On a long-term frame, prices do increase with time; this is the general trend, which does not preclude strong upwards and sharp downward movements on the way.
One thing to remember about prices is that even if they go down, you do not have a loss unless you actually sell the item; you only have a potential loss of value, which will materialize only if you do sell the item at this time, nothing else.
Marc
Prices/Value Discussion. - Sergei - 10-01-2006
Marc, well said :thumbsup
I definitely support the view that, no matter where you start, patience and dedication is the key to success - but then it is always like that, isn't it? Sergei.
Prices/Value Discussion. - sovvisor - 10-01-2006
I follow the discussion with much pleasure.
I agree that goldprice etc does not have much to do with it anymore. if 100 newskis will be available at the same time i don´t think will get great impact. the demand is high and i think more people in russia will see this as an good investment in their own history.
Prices/Value Discussion. - plmurphy - 10-01-2006
I believe the recent jump in prices of Russian items is not only due to fashion. It is due to the fact that there are now enough Russians with sufficient disposable income and interest in their own past to create a vibrant domestic collectors market. The same thing is happening to Russian coins and has happened to other areas of medal collecting in the past.
Mongolian medal prices are more likely to stagnate since a lot of that demand is from type collectors overseas and there is little active research. I believe the next country that will see sudden increases will be Turkey, their items have started to climb and there is a lot of domestic demand for the early orders.
For the serious collector a stagnant or falling market presents an opportunity to increase the size of your collection. I have been collecting Japanese items for the past 17 years and prices have been flat for most of that time. Has that slowed me down, no way !
If Soviet prices start to fall I reckon there are plenty of collectors waiting in the wings who will snap up items once they become affordable so this will create a natural floor for the price. I would not hold my breath waiting for a market slump, I think it is more likely that good material will continue to get more difficult and more expensive to find.
Regards,
Paul
Prices/Value Discussion. - Sergei - 10-07-2006
OK, my comments have been somewhat provocative and perhaps not exactly honest - I am buying Russian medals now - for very personal reasons, not as an investment (as an investment I prefer to do other things
. I have two concerns sor far: a 'blind belief' from the new collectors that Russian medals represent a fantastic ivalue - but smart guys in London have already SOLD their Russian collections (and their Nazi stuff too). The second concern, I would like to hear what professional traders think - there are a few of them on this forum, but they are keeping very quiet. I wonder why... Sergei
Prices/Value Discussion. - Nack - 10-07-2006
Sorry, what was your second concern?
Prices/Value Discussion. - Sergei - 10-07-2006
Sorry. Meant to say - professional trades are not participating in this discussion, and that's my second concern. I reckon they are best positioned to judge the supply/demand side of things, they can also recognize an overheated market. Sergei.
Prices/Value Discussion. - Art - 10-07-2006
You might want to search the "General Talk" forum for the word "prices". This topic pops up every year or so and we've all chimed in at one time or another. Here is a very popular version which dates back to 2002!
http://www.soviet-awards.com/forum/showthread.php?t=286&highlight=prices
Prices/Value Discussion. - Lapa - 10-07-2006
Art,
You could append this thread to the old one, it is definitely beating the same cow (not sure if it is completely dead, though
).Marc