02-16-2006, 05:31 PM
There are two main drivers to the market as I see it:
1) Supply
2) Purchasing power
SUPPLY
Awards / groups came to the market from two primary sources: veterans families and museums in former USSR.
Most of the verterans are gone by now and majority of the families sold awards to the market. Russia sort of passed the bottom in terms of the poverty and the most needy families sold awards where the times were tougher. Don't forget there were plenty of trophy hunters in former SU whos primary activity was about going from town to village in search of families willing to sell awards. With years of heavy hunting that sector is exhausted. There are also places that buy precious metals and antiques. Until few years aga there was contant stream of folks in need bringing awards, but based on the Russian sources interesting items all disappeared and only common awards currently are still being brought in.
As for the museums - ones that did not care about Soviet items - mostly in Baltics - already sold / gave away their items. Remaining museums also suffered from replacements and currently have tighter controls in place.
Don't get me wrong, we will see occasional new items on the market, but to the minimal degree.
Private collections will remain as the main source for the future. What's the likelyhood that collectors will sell their awards for lower prices than they bought them? Slim to none, unless there real need (such as tragedy in the family, change of interests, funds needed for other endeavors, etc).
PURCHASING POWER
There are rich folks in Russia with means well beyond what normal collectors possess. The are the one who drive the prices up. Market evolves around them at the moment.
That's why a dealer has Suvorov for $15,000. He's not targeting ordinary collectors, he's waiting for rich person to come over. How many of us are capable and willing to spend $15,000, even $12,000 for a medal to add to the collection? I was considering Rusty's Suvorov, but to freeze $12,000 in a single medal?
I can almost guarantee that whoever bought that Suvorov from Rusty had Russia in mind. Most likely that Suvorov (like most of high-priced items) will end up with some wealthy dude in Russia. For such buyers few thousand $$$ difference will not be a deal breaker, as their income / wealth exceed such prices by great margins.
The truth is that there always will be expensive items out there. Suvorov is currently expensive at $12-15K, but when the price was $2.5-3K - I don't remember everyone on this board jumping on and purchasing as many of them as we could. It still was expensive!
Items like this were and will be luxury items.
William
1) Supply
2) Purchasing power
SUPPLY
Awards / groups came to the market from two primary sources: veterans families and museums in former USSR.
Most of the verterans are gone by now and majority of the families sold awards to the market. Russia sort of passed the bottom in terms of the poverty and the most needy families sold awards where the times were tougher. Don't forget there were plenty of trophy hunters in former SU whos primary activity was about going from town to village in search of families willing to sell awards. With years of heavy hunting that sector is exhausted. There are also places that buy precious metals and antiques. Until few years aga there was contant stream of folks in need bringing awards, but based on the Russian sources interesting items all disappeared and only common awards currently are still being brought in.
As for the museums - ones that did not care about Soviet items - mostly in Baltics - already sold / gave away their items. Remaining museums also suffered from replacements and currently have tighter controls in place.
Don't get me wrong, we will see occasional new items on the market, but to the minimal degree.
Private collections will remain as the main source for the future. What's the likelyhood that collectors will sell their awards for lower prices than they bought them? Slim to none, unless there real need (such as tragedy in the family, change of interests, funds needed for other endeavors, etc).
PURCHASING POWER
There are rich folks in Russia with means well beyond what normal collectors possess. The are the one who drive the prices up. Market evolves around them at the moment.
That's why a dealer has Suvorov for $15,000. He's not targeting ordinary collectors, he's waiting for rich person to come over. How many of us are capable and willing to spend $15,000, even $12,000 for a medal to add to the collection? I was considering Rusty's Suvorov, but to freeze $12,000 in a single medal?
I can almost guarantee that whoever bought that Suvorov from Rusty had Russia in mind. Most likely that Suvorov (like most of high-priced items) will end up with some wealthy dude in Russia. For such buyers few thousand $$$ difference will not be a deal breaker, as their income / wealth exceed such prices by great margins.
The truth is that there always will be expensive items out there. Suvorov is currently expensive at $12-15K, but when the price was $2.5-3K - I don't remember everyone on this board jumping on and purchasing as many of them as we could. It still was expensive!
Items like this were and will be luxury items.
William
