Lenin.

[Eryk]

Collectable prices/values are notoriously volatile, because collecting is completely discretionary and tends to follow fads. The commodity value should be looked at as a floor, beneath which the price shouldn’t fall. Below that price it’s a bargain, at that time at least. For medals it’s even more interesting, though, because the underlying commodity price is also volatile. Gold and silver have fluctuated massively over the past few decades.

Rarity figures in, but more important is the size of the market, the number of folks interested in collecting. Soviet awards didn’t get any more rare in the 2000s, yet prices went through the roof. Completely a function of the number of people wanting them and their willingness to pay.

Prices have fallen, a lot, from their highs. This doesn’t reflect any increase in supply, but a lessening of demand; collectors are fickle and the next fad is always out there. For that reason I don’t know that prices will always rise, though over time the awards will indeed get rarer as attrition removes them from circulation. I’m not confident that we’ll ever see a rise back to the highs.