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General And Slightly Off Topic Talk Forum for exchanging ideas and talking about general issues without straying too far off topic. |
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01-15-2008, 06:41 AM | #551 |
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Thanks, Alex. Read 'em and weep.
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01-15-2008, 08:20 AM | #552 |
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No Weeping Here!
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01-15-2008, 09:20 AM | #553 |
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Slava,
You are probably one of the very few to be happy to see prices raise so fast and so high. You must have quite a few of these stashed away The rest of us, mere mortals, stare at them with disgusted amazement and disbelief! Marc |
01-15-2008, 09:34 AM | #554 | |
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Quote:
We are all mortal! "Fast" is a relative term. If one first procured a Glory 1st back in the early 1990s, it hasn't been fast at all. I agree the meteoric rise in value is surprising. As with anything, however, rarity is the key. There were only slightly over 2,500 Full Cavaliers of the Order of Glory compared to over 11,500 Heroes of the Soviet Union. If one was farsighted way back in the early 1990s, it is clear which of the two offered the greater long-term growth potential. Regards, slava1stclass Last edited by slava1stclass; 01-15-2008 at 09:36 AM. |
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01-15-2008, 10:55 AM | #555 |
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Slava,
I 100% agree with you about rarity. To me, HSU have always been nice, but overvalued (OK guys, I'm ready fro the barrage, I've put my helmet on). Marc |
01-15-2008, 11:24 AM | #556 |
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Did you see how the results of the Auction in New York effected prices on the market (I am talking about NJ dealer)?
Eric |
01-15-2008, 11:31 AM | #557 |
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Eric,
Not yet! Sounds like I need to have a good look soon... Marc |
01-15-2008, 12:13 PM | #558 |
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01-15-2008, 12:48 PM | #559 |
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Hehehe, what a connected world we have.
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На Берлин! |
01-17-2008, 07:06 PM | #560 |
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Market analysis on the recent auction in two part
I have been looking for results but had not thought to look here (or NJ dealer)
About the pricing - An instant market analysis follows in two parts: Part I – warning; Part II - Why prices are rising: Part I No one alive today remembers the Tulip bubble of the 1600’s. Tulips were very popular. Prices skyrocketed to the point where a single tulip bulb was worth thousands of dollar equivalents (there were no dollars, after all it was the 1600’s!). Then the market crashed, and those who had tulips were in a “pretty state!” IF they bought cheap good, if they bought high, they had a nice flower and that was it, and some lost everything! Gold has recently topped $900 an oz. That affects order of Lenin as a bulk gold medal and the more rare medals trade at multiples to Gold. A recent analysis of gold prices in Newsweek warned about the last time gold topped $600. It lasted two months and then crashed to $300 - $500 for twenty some years. So, even neighbors warn of the bubble in the gold market. It can’t continue, so Buyer Beware! Part II All of that said, on another level however: The order of Lenin is GOLD. Gold is at 900 per oz. Oil is at 90 per barrel. Once upon a time in the early 1980’s gold was $600/oz. and oil hit the $40’s per barrel and touched $50 a barrel (I am not certain because I was not there for that last price but it was reported to me then). Then 2 months later Gold crashed back to its previous and subsequently the “normal” price remained $300 - $500 for a long time. Oil dropped rather than crashing as well. It thus appears on a big picture market basis that oil and gold track at 10 to 1 for an ounce of gold to a barrel of oil. Today they are in line. That affects the Order of Lenin which has consistently traded at bulk gold plus 50/60 percent mark-up for history. So today a “run of the mill” Lenin is $1300 – 1500 with some give or take for today’s rate, and my rounding. At one of those recent auctions in New York, Ribbon Lenin’s traded at $1,600, which is an 11% gain over my predicted $1,440. (Check below for discussion of currency fluctuation offsetting that gain.) Historically Screw-back Lenin’s have traded at 2x ribbon Lenin’s despite the fact that there are only 1/40 the number available. That is called “discounting.’ And the Gold Head/Silver-head have traded at twice screw-back, despite the fact that the proper ratio was 6.5:1 for Screw-back Lenin to Gold/Silver-head. So, previously we saw Lenin on the Ribbon at $500 – $600 Screw-back at $1,000, Gold/Silver-head Lenin at $2,500. Translating that to $900/ounce gold, means $1,440 for ribbon Lenin, $2,880 for screw-back and $5,670 for Gold/Silver-head which is approximately the ratio from one-two years ago (except gold head gained some discount back and rose to $7500/$10,000). But finally folks are realizing that those old discounts are unwarranted. The recent book by Durov (Encyclopedia of Soviet Decorations – Order of Lenin and Order of Stalin (Project)) describes the first 200 Gold/Silver head as different from later badges. It has apparently drawn two rich folks out of Russia or elsewhere to come to New York and bid to be the “one and only” holder of all types and variations of the Order of Lenin, (something I aspired to be in a much softer market but never quite managed). So, if we do the math as above for rarity and base it on current gold prices we find: Tractors = 700 Gold head – variation 1 = 200 Gold/Silver head total = 1685 (rounded to 1700 for my calculations or 1500 excluding the above) Screw back (other than above) = 11,000 Ribbon Lenin up to 466,700 (excluding the above) = 453,000 $900 x 10 (for screw-back to ribbon even though it should be 41:1) x 4 for screw-back to Gold head – even though that should be almost 7 to 1) x 5 (for Variation 1 to the total Gold/Silver head even though that should be either 6.5 or 7) = $180,000 and the buyer got a discount on the price because $150K x 1.15 for commission is only $172,500! Freaky! On another level, last year a Tractor Lenin sold in the same auction for $46,500 plus commission. There are, as above, 700 Tractors. There are 200 Gold/Silver-Head Variation 1. Do the ratio 3.5:1 math and you get only $139,500? A price of $150,000 is only 7.5 percent over that conversion which would be offset by currency fluctuations. If you compare the Dollar against the Euro this year versus last year, the prices in dollars are a discount to foreign buyers. Today’s exchange rate of Dollar to Euro is $1.47+. One year ago the rate was $1.29+. The difference = 13.9% more than offsetting that gain in pricing of the Gold Head Lenin. So, to all our American readers, now is the time to send your medals back home, at the inflated in dollars price and discounted in Euro (or related) cost. Costs/prices are the same as last year but for currency fluctuation, and recent books showing actual rarity of the really high end stuff, that we all wish we bought at $1,100 years ago (when Gold-head Lenin’s were sold at a discount because they were damaged!) If you did, you are seeing/enjoying the effects of currency Arbitrage, strength of gold, and a strong Russian capital market. Sve Vlast na Kapitalismus! Ride the wave! |
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